Amara’s law

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

References

How Innovation Works (p. 261)

In my view the most insightful thing ever said about forecasting innovation was a ‘law’ named after a Stanford University computer scientist and long-time head of the Insittude for the Future by the name of Roy Amara. Amara’s Law states that […]