Safe-to-try probes

Probe is the first step from Probe-Sense-Respond. The best way to understand what a probe is is to contrast it against other verbs:

• Analyse: Analysis implies that we will understand the causality of what we do before we act. Given the nonlinear causality of a Complex system, it's hard to analyse them. Rather than analysing, we probe to understand its Dispositionality.
• Experiment: Experiment is meant to be repeatable. To prove a theory, scientists will conduct the same experiment over and over again to ensure its replicability. Probe on the other hand, won't be able to be replicated or repeated, because An experiment may impact a complex system.

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References

[Cynefin for Everyone! | Liz Keogh blog](https://lizkeogh.com/cynefin-for-everyone/#:~:text=In the complex domain, we,repeatable, with a provable hypothesis.)

In the complex domain, we have to probe the problem. That means to try something out in a way that’s safe-to-fail. Ideally we’ll have several probes running in parallel. [...] It’s not quite the same as an experiment, because experiments are intended to be repeatable, with a provable hypothesis. In complex problems, though, the side-effects mean that you might not get the impact you were hoping for, even with the effect you intended… or you might find that the effect wasn’t really what you wanted after all.

Backlinks

• How and when should the word scan be used in Cynefin?
  • Scanning should come before the creation of Safe-to-try probes
• Verbs to act in Complex System
  • Safe-to-try probes
• Constraint should be a plausible hypothesis
  • For example, if you're resolving an issue of someone who's not engaging well in a team meeting, a constraint that "could" be at play is "leader always right culture". You may not know if that's right, but it could be right, and that's enough to generate more ideas for Safe-to-try probes.
• Designing parallel safe-to-try probes
  • Once there is a hypothesis of what Constraint keeping a pattern in place, you can begin designing a Safe-to-try probes.
• Probation period as an example of probing
  • I find probation period, in the context of hiring a new team member, to be a good example of probing (Probe-Sense-Respond / Safe-to-try probes). I like it because the words seem to share the same Latin root probare, and most people are familiar with the idea of a probation period.
• Safe-to-fail probes
  • The new name is Safe-to-try probes. I prefer the new name to as the word try will get people to try.