Overconfidence bias

Overconfidence bias is a type of Cognitive bias where people’s subjective confidence towards their judgements is greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements. This bias often make people underestimate a task, especially tasks that aren’t broken down. Interestingly, even the people who study this phenomenon admit they that fell for it too.

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References

Ahrens, How to Take Smart Notes (p. 142).

But there is one consolation: It has nothing to do with being a student. It has something to do with being human. Even the people who study this phenomenon, which is called the overconfidence bias, admit that they too fall for it (Kahneman 2013, 245ff).

Backlinks

• Zettelkasten disregards planning
  • Sticking to a plan, however, requires willpower (Ahrens 6) and willpower is not a sustainable way to writing, especially when what you write takes a multi year of research (Workflow trumps willpower); you want to gain enjoyment from writing instead, and Zettelkasten enables constant focus on interesting materials. We have Overconfidence bias too which means our plan tend not to work out as we expected. Sticking to a plan will also disregard new discoveries (Ahrens 11). The DNA structure won't be discovered if the scientists sticked to their plan (DNA structure was discovered on cancer treatment research).